Existential threads

 People who like being in headlines are clutching at straws when they talk about existential threats.

The latest in a long line of "we're all doomed" was trigged by the hype surrounding a new chatbot, mostly similar to the old chatbot, but with a slightly smoother line of patter. LLMs are not AI, or even AGI, they are giant pattern matchers.

In order of threats to things, my list is quite short

• LLMs are a threat to journalists, as they reveal how few journalist actually do their job, and that job, therefore is at risk, from being replaced by a script, just like workers in call centers. Threat? tiny. When? Right now.
• Nuclear Fusion Reactor - these actually could save the planet, and the tech is now mere engineering away from being deployable - just main problem is that that engieering is very very serious - more complex than, say, a 747/Jumbo Jet, which is typically a 20 year lead time. Nevertheless, these are. a threat to fossil fuel  industry. Threat: modest. When? 10-20 years off.
• Quantum Computers - these are.a threat to some old cryptographic algorithms, for which we already have replacements. However, decoherence and noise are a threat to QC, so these may never happen. Someone clever might solve that, so let say 5-50 years, or not at all. Threat: miniscule.
• Climate. catastrophe. already. right now. Threat: total; When: yesterday.

So there's my list. AGIs might happen if we survive all the above, or at least 3. You choose.