Tuesday, March 09, 2021

The Genies that probably won't go back in the Bottle

 One discovery made about people in organisations using video conferencing was in the early days of the Defense Simulation Internet - this was about 30 years back (DSINet started around 91) and made extensive use of the Mbone technology to provide many-to-many real time video, audio and shared applications. One of the UIs for this had a prototype of the "hollywood squares" that many Zoom users will nowadays be familiar with, 

Most of the real users of this system were wargaming (the shared apps included highly detailed battlefield maps with animations of army vehicles etc). At some point, the generals got really upset because they noticed the rank-and-file were talking directly to each other, rather than up-and-down the chains of command. Students of history will know that such a peer-to-peer organisation was also how the anarchist brigades operated in the Spanish civil war - it is highly effective as it is highly resilient (there's no leader to decapitate, and it is lower latency to get information to the people who need it to make decisions and take action).

This all applies to any overly hierarchical organisation, be it university, company or indeed, entire nation states. We cut out those annoying pointless "leaders" who make the wrong decisions because they are a bottleneck, and swamped with either too much advice, or too many filters, or too many lobbyists distorting the information, The Internet may finally actually democratise socieity, but not as previously envisaged.

By the same lockdown token, people have more time to consider content delivered by digital communication. Consideration may lead to more nuanced decision making (e.g. not responding to clickbait, or believing fake news, or even taking care to remember who was responsible for these things and mentally marking their future utterances as suspect, or at least "to be fact checked carefully when I have time after this".

Evidence for the increasing discernment by the broad public can also be seen in the search for relatively subtle explanations of what is happening (rules for lockdown, vaccine safety etc) - where people would dismiss experts, they now much choose an expert who explains about exponential increases in cases when R0 is above one, or the nature of false positives and false negatives in different tests. This is because after a year of hearing experts and politicians, it is increasingly obvious whose explanations and predictions are based in some sort of discipline, and whose are just self-serving attempts to maintain a wobbly power base. 

You can fool some of the people some of the time, but 12 months in, everyone starts to realise who the real fools are. Or indeed, crooks.

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